The Effects of Luck: Lucky Hitters

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at which players were most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 2 of this 4 Part series, he examines which hitters should see significant declines in 2012 due to exceptional luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC).

Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters

Emilio Bonifacio (.296/.360/.393/85)

As we saw in the first part of this series, the main stat for luck is BABIP, and Bonifacio had the 3rd highest BABIP in all of baseball last year at .372. While he does have a very nice .339 career BABIP, .372 is simply unsustainable. This is especially true given the fact that he’s had a ground ball rate above 50% every season. Look for his BABIP to regress to around his career number, with his batting average and OBP following towards his career marks of .269 and .328 respectively.

Austin Jackson (.249/.317/.374/71)

Jackson, in my opinion, has been one of the most overrated hitters of late. He posted a solid rookie campaign in 2010 batting .293, but his OBP was still only .345 and his BABIP was an astronomical .396. Last year, his BABIP, while still high, fell to .340, and his slash line suffered as seen above. This year, his BABIP should fall even farther, and we should see the results once again with another decline for the former top Yankees prospect.

Casey Kotchman (.306/.378/.422/79)

There’s definitely a reason Kotchman was still available so late into the offseason. His BABIP last year was .335, with a previous career high BABIP of .305, showing that the high 2011 BABIP was a fluke and not repeatable. Looking at his batted ball profile, his GB % was 2.1 % higher than his average at a massive 55.8 %, the second highest in his career. He is also a slower player, so it’s not as if he has the ability to churn out infield singles with speed. Rather, it was ground balls that were finding holes. So, Kotchman had a very high BABIP with a very high GB rate, a sure sign of extreme luck. Those hits won’t keep falling in, and he’ll be back to a mediocre hitter at best.

Melky Cabrera (.305/.339/.470/98)

The Royals should be very pleased that they were able to unload the Melk Man while his value was at an all time high, because it has peaked. Cabrera’s career BABIP is .299, and it had only reached the .300 plateau once before, when it got up to .332 in 2011. The spike wasn’t due to a change in his batted ball profile, which means it was likely luck; more balls fell in for hits than usual. Let’s also examine Melky’s walk and strikeout rates:

Melky has always been known as an aggressive hitter, but this 5.0 % walk rate is awful. The fact that he put up a career worst BB % and K % even further supports the luck contribution to his 98 wRC in 2011. Like Kotchman, Cabrera should return to form as a mediocre hitter at best, and produce closer to 50-60 wRC.

Matt Joyce (.277/.347/.478/76)

Joyce made the All-Star team last July but trailed off significantly in the second half. He had the benefit of a .317 BABIP compared to a .273 BABIP in 2010, his rookie season. From 2010 to 2011, his BB % drastically declined and his GB % increased. These are signs of what should have been a decline in Joyce’s numbers, but a BABIP of .404 in April and .426 in May inflated his entire stat line for 2011. It’s safe to say this won’t happen again, and Joyce will be back to the .241/.360/.477 player he was in 2010. Not bad, but certainly not All-Star worthy.