Field of Ignorance Hiatus
It has been nearly a year since Field of Ignorance was last active. For those that don’t know, founder Jesse Behr was hired as an associate scout for the Toronto Blue Jays last February. Continuing the site under Behr’s leadership would be a conflict of interest given his new position. For the time being, FOI will remain inactive until the site is turned over to new hands.
With that said, the site domain and title itself are now up for sale. Please contact us at contact@fieldofignorance.com for more information.
Feel free to browse our archives in the meantime.
Read MoreThe Effects of Luck: Lucky Pitchers
Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In the final part of this 4 Part series, he examines which pitchers should see significant declines in 2012 due to exceptional luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (ERA/FIP/xFIP).
Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters | Part 2 - Lucky Hitters | Part 3 – Unlucky Pitchers
Jeremy Hellickson (2.95/4.44/4.72)
When Hellickson was in the minors, his K/9 was consistently above 9. In 2011, his first full major league season, it fell to 5.57, with 3.43 BB/9, leading to a terrible 1.63 K/BB ratio. His GB % was a very low 35 %. So how did Hellickson post such a great ERA? The answer lies in a .223 BABIP, the lowest of any pitcher last year. He benefited from having good defense behind him, and many balls in play simply did not fall in for hits. His HR/FB rate was also low at 8.1 %, another sign of luck. His BABIP is very likely to rise in 2012, and if his strikeout and walk numbers don’t improve dramatically, his numbers will be very mediocre.
Read MoreThe Effects of Luck: Unlucky Pitchers
Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 3 of this 4 Part series, he examines which pitchers should see significant improvement in 2012 due to poor luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (ERA/FIP/xFIP).
Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters | Part 2 – Lucky Hitters
A.J. Burnett (5.15/4.77/3.86)
Believe it or not, Burnett was very unlucky last year, due to having the highest HR/FB rate in all of baseball at 17 %. It is generally accepted that pitchers can impact whether their pitches are hit on the ground or in the air, but how many home runs come of those fly balls is not nearly as controllable. Burnett’s K/9, BB/9, BABIP, and GB in 2011 were all very close to his career averages, yet his ERA was over a full run higher than his career 4.10 ERA. Many will respond by asking, what about 2010? It is unlikely that a player should fall victim to such bad luck for two full consecutive seasons. However, this isn’t the case, as demonstrated in 2010; Burnett was awful. His K/9 fell to 6.99 and his GB % fell to 44.9 % whereas in 2011 his K/9 returned to 8.18 and his GB % rose to 49.2 %.
Read MoreThe Effects of Luck: Lucky Hitters
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at which players were most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 2 of this 4 Part series, he examines which hitters should see significant declines in 2012 due to exceptional luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC).
Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters
Emilio Bonifacio (.296/.360/.393/85)
As we saw in the first part of this series, the main stat for luck is BABIP, and Bonifacio had the 3rd highest BABIP in all of baseball last year at .372. While he does have a very nice .339 career BABIP, .372 is simply unsustainable. This is especially true given the fact that he’s had a ground ball rate above 50% every season. Look for his BABIP to regress to around his career number, with his batting average and OBP following towards his career marks of .269 and .328 respectively.
Read MoreThe Effects of Luck: Unlucky Hitters
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 1 of this 4 Part series, he’ll examine which hitters should see significant improvement in 2012 due to poor luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC).
Mark Teixeira (.248/.341/.494/101)
In 2011, Teixeira fell victim to a measly .239 BABIP compared to a .296 career BABIP. His batted ball percentages were in line with his career averages, with a slightly higher FB % and lower GB % than usual for him. This is a good sign, as it means the higher number of ground balls is not the cause of the horrid BABIP, which was the 3rd worst in all of baseball. His 11.1 BB % is virtually the same as his career 11.5 BB %, and his K % was actually better than his career numbers. His power is still there, shown by 39 HRs, .494 SLG %, and .246 ISO. The only thing that wasn’t there last year was the hits falling in. Look for Teixeira to get back to his previous numbers of 120+ wRC with an uptick in his entire slash line.
Read MorePrince To Detroit: A Deal Worth Making
AP Photo
by Jan Stransky | @janstransky | jstransky@fieldofignorance.com |
Prince Fielder has reportedly signed a nine-year deal worth $214 million with the Detroit Tigers. This instantly re-buffs a Detroit Tigers lineup that had just suffered the loss of run-producer Victor Martinez to a torn ACL. It has just been announced that Miguel Cabrera has agreed to play 3B in 2012, slotting in the 275lb Fielder at 1B; the two will most likely share the DH spot. In 2013, with the return of Martinez, the Tigers can utilize their versatility by shifting each of the three as DH on any given day.
The deal is only the fourth in major league history to exceed $200 million, with the other three being Alex Rodriguez to Texas, Alex Rodriguez to New York, and Albert Pujols to the Angels. The Tigers, who won the AL Central by 15 games in 2011, should undoubtedly be division, if not American League, favorites in 2012.
Read MoreYankees Reshape Rotation
AP Photo
by Tyler Wasserman | @tylerwasserman | tjwasserman@fieldofignorance.com |
Over the course of about an hour, the Yankees completely changed 40% of their starting rotation. They shocked the baseball world by trading penciled-in DH Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to Seattle for starting pitcher Michael Pineda and prospect Jose Campos. Pineda will slide into the #2 spot in the Yankees rotation, while Campos will likely begin the season in either the A or AA level. Then, about an hour later, news broke that the Yankees had also signed Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year, $10 million contract.
Let’s start with the two main players of the trade with the Mariners: Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda. Montero is widely considered to be one of the top, if not the best hitting prospect in all of baseball. However, the Yankees clearly did not feel he would be an adequate catcher, as they’ve tried to deal him before and were very hesitant to put him behind the plate during his September call-up last year. With Mark Teixeira holding down 1B for the foreseeable future, that would leave Montero as strictly a DH with the Yankees for years to come.
Pineda, on the other hand, has the potential to be a number one starter. He finished 2011 with 9.11 K/9 and only 2.89 BB/9, both extremely impressive numbers for a 22-year-old rookie pitcher. The main concern with Pineda is his 5.12 post All-Star break ERA. While it’s never good to see pitchers fade that much in the second half of the season, I don’t think there’s cause for concern with Pineda.
Read MoreBig Z, Volstad Swap: Why Both Sides Benefit
Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images
by Jan Stransky | @janstransky | jstransky@fieldofignorance.com |
This past Thursday, Carlos Zambrano was traded to the new-look Miami Marlins in return for pitcher Chris Volstad. The Cubs’ new GM, Theo Epstein, spurred the transaction on after taking into consideration the input of team players and personnel. Considering the fact that Zambrano waived his no-trade clause, it seems that the Cubs and Zambrano simply did not get along any more. On a side note, I find it funny that the new Cubs’ GM has taken such an interest in the flow and legitimacy of the clubhouse, this after reports of teammates playing games and boozing around in the clubhouse during games in Boston. Nevertheless, compare Zambrano to Volstad:
Read MoreOakland Deals Bailey to Boston
AP Photo
by Jan Stransky | @janstransky | jstransky@fieldofignorance.com |
Last Wednesday, the Oakland Athletics traded former AL Rookie of the Year, closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney to the Boston Red Sox in return for Josh Reddick and prospects Miles Head and Raul Alcantara. Let’s sum up the obvious: this deal fills the closer role for the Red Sox after they parted ways with Jonathan Papelbon, and furthers what seems to be the annual gutting to rebuilding process of the Oakland Athletics. However, Billy Beane is no fool. So just how does this deal pan out?
Read More