It has been nearly a year since Field of Ignorance was last active. For those that don’t know, founder Jesse Behr was hired as an associate scout for the Toronto Blue Jays last February. Continuing the site under Behr’s leadership would be a conflict of interest given his new position. For the time being, FOI will remain inactive until the site is turned over to new hands.

With that said, the site domain and title itself are now up for sale. Please contact us at contact@fieldofignorance.com for more information.

Feel free to browse our archives in the meantime.

Perhaps the era of big-money teams dominating the free agency market is about to come to a close, at least to a certain extent. The managing general partner of the New York Yankees, Hal Steinbrenner, announced last week that the franchise plans to cut its payroll all the way down to $189 million by the start of the 2014 season. This means the Yankees, who in 2011 had a payroll of $202 million, will have to reduce their total payroll by $13 million in just two seasons. Since the introduction of the luxury tax in 2003, the Yankees have paid $206 million of the $227 million collected by the league, slightly over 90%. The team is looking to eliminate their luxury tax expense all together by 2014.

The new collective bargaining agreement, which goes into effect this season, is the primary reason for the sudden luxury tax concern. First of all, the luxury tax threshold is currently $178 million. It will remain the same for 2012 and 2013, and will rise to $189 million for 2014, which is the Yankees’ target. Getting the payroll down to $178 million by 2013 is very unrealistic, so they are aiming to not pay luxury tax in 2014.

Under the old collective bargaining agreement, first time luxury taxpayers paid 22.5% of the amount over the threshold, second time payers paid 30%, and third time payers paid 40%. Any subsequent seasons over the threshold remained at a 40% tax. However, in the new CBA, the first time tax decreases to 17.5%, the second time and third time rates stay the same, and the fourth and all subsequent times increase to a 50% tax on overages. But the key difference is that under the new CBA, if a team gets under the luxury tax threshold, they are treated as a first time payer the next year that they exceed the threshold. Under the old structure, if a team was over the threshold, then got under it, and exceeded it the following year, they would still be treated as a second time payer.

The Yankees will now have to pay a 50% tax on any amount over $178 million in 2012 and 2013, since they have been paying luxury tax every year for the past decade. Until they get under the threshold, they will be paying 50% on all salary exceeding the luxury tax threshold. However, if they can manage to get the payroll down to $189 million in 2014, the benefits go beyond simply not paying luxury tax in 2014. In 2015, they could go back over the threshold and be treated as a first time payer, paying 17.5% rather than 50%. This is the key to the Yankees’ thinking. They are still going to spend, but they will now be very mindful of that luxury tax penalty.

The purpose of this site is to analyze the value of players and teams, and whether money is being spent efficiently or not. A few months ago, Jan conducted a study to see if the amount of money a team spends actually correlates to a team winning the World Series. The conclusion of that study was that money provides teams with an immediate advantage, and there is a high probability that teams among the highest in the league in payroll will win the World Series. However, ultimately there are many variables that decide who wins that last game of the season. And now, even Hal Steinbrenner has come to realize that: “Plenty of teams win without the kind of payroll we have.”

Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In the final part of this 4 Part series, he examines which pitchers should see significant declines in 2012 due to exceptional luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (ERA/FIP/xFIP).

Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters | Part 2 - Lucky Hitters | Part 3 – Unlucky Pitchers

Jeremy Hellickson (2.95/4.44/4.72)

When Hellickson was in the minors, his K/9 was consistently above 9. In 2011, his first full major league season, it fell to 5.57, with 3.43 BB/9, leading to a terrible 1.63 K/BB ratio. His GB % was a very low 35 %. So how did Hellickson post such a great ERA? The answer lies in a .223 BABIP, the lowest of any pitcher last year. He benefited from having good defense behind him, and many balls in play simply did not fall in for hits. His HR/FB rate was also low at 8.1 %, another sign of luck. His BABIP is very likely to rise in 2012, and if his strikeout and walk numbers don’t improve dramatically, his numbers will be very mediocre.

Jered Weaver (2.41/3.20/3.80)

Weaver has consistently been a top starting pitcher throughout his career, but his emergence as one of the very best in the game was due to outliers in BABIP, HR/FB, and stranding runners on base. His strikeout and walk rates were not significantly different from his career averages, so they were not the cause of the better results. His 2011 BABIP was .250 compared to his .276 career BABIP, and his HR/FB rate was a career low 6.3 %. He also stranded 82.6 % of runners on base, which doesn’t look to be sustainable, compared to the 76.8 % runners stranded for his career. With these three stats likely to regress towards his career averages, this 2012 ERA should be back above 3.

Matt Cain (2.88/2.91/3.78)

Similarly to Weaver, Cain should see a return to an ERA in the mid-3s rather than below 3. He mainly benefited from an obscenely low 3.7 % HR/FB ratio. A rate this low is simply unsustainable, it was the lowest in all of baseball last year, and nobody else had a ratio under 5 %. Many would believe that this low ratio is in part due to pitching in the spacious AT&T Park, but his HR/FB rate at home was 3.6 % compared to 3.7 % on the road. Although Cain has historically been very good at keeping the ball in the park, a regression of his HR/FB rate to close to his career average of 6.5 % should bring his ERA back to around his career number of 3.35.

Kyle Lohse (3.39/3.67/4.04)

Lohse’s career best ERA in 2011 was over a full run better than his career 4.64. However, his K/9 (5.3) was worse than his career average, and his BB/9 was only marginally better than his norm. Once again, he benefited from a significant fall in his BABIP and HR/FB rate. His career BABIP is .302 and his previous career best was .280, which happened 10 years ago. Last year, his BABIP was .269, and his HR/FB rate was a career best 7.2 % compared to a career average 9.7%. His ERA should be much higher in 2012 if his BABIP and HR/FB rate regress to his career averages.

Ryan Vogelsong (2.71/3.67/3.85)

Vogelsong finished 2011 with a 6.96 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9. Neither of these rates stands out from a league-average pitcher. His BABIP and HR/FB rate were both fairly low at .280 and 8.2 %, respectively. He also stranded a great amount of baserunners in 2011, at 80.6 %, which is likely unsustainable. Vogelsong’s 2012 performance should shadow his 2011 FIP and xFIP, leading to an ERA in the mid- to high-3s, rather than the mid- to high-2s.

1 – ( H – HR ) / ( AB – SO – HR + SH + SF )

Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 3 of this 4 Part series, he examines which pitchers should see significant improvement in 2012 due to poor luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (ERA/FIP/xFIP).

Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters | Part 2 – Lucky Hitters

A.J. Burnett (5.15/4.77/3.86)

Believe it or not, Burnett was very unlucky last year, due to having the highest HR/FB rate in all of baseball at 17 %. It is generally accepted that pitchers can impact whether their pitches are hit on the ground or in the air, but how many home runs come of those fly balls is not nearly as controllable. Burnett’s K/9, BB/9, BABIP, and GB in 2011 were all very close to his career averages, yet his ERA was over a full run higher than his career 4.10 ERA. Many will respond by asking, what about 2010? It is unlikely that a player should fall victim to such bad luck for two full consecutive seasons. However, this isn’t the case, as demonstrated in 2010; Burnett was awful. His K/9 fell to 6.99 and his GB % fell to 44.9 % whereas in 2011 his K/9 returned to 8.18 and his GB % rose to 49.2 %.

Furthermore, the astronomical 17 % HR/FB is not a result of pitching in HR-friendly Yankee Stadium. His HR/FB rate at home was actually lower than it was on the road, further proof that this rate was a fluke and simply poor luck. If Burnett actually makes a starting rotation this year, he should improve over last year’s numbers significantly as long as his strikeout and ground ball rates stay at his 2011 and career numbers, rather than falling back to his 2010 levels.

Zack Greinke (3.83/2.98/2.56)

Greinke had a good 2011 season, but his peripherals show it could have been a Cy Young Award caliber season if it wasn’t for bad luck. His K % was a remarkable 28.1 %, a career high, accompanied by a fantastic 6.3 % BB rate, right in line with his career average of 6.1 %. However, he fell victim to a .318 BABIP despite a career high 47.3 GB %, which would normally lead to a lower BABIP. This was his highest BABIP since 2005. Not only did Greinke have bad luck with his BABIP, but he also was a HR/FB victim, with the highest rate (13.6 %) of his career (excluding a small sample size of 6.1 innings in 2006). If he didn’t experience bad luck last year, his FIP and xFIP show that he would’ve been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2011. Look for a lights-out 2012 from Greinke.

Ricky Nolasco (4.67/3.54/3.55)

Nolasco had the highest BABIP for qualifying pitchers in 2011 at .331, while getting a career high 45.1 % ground balls, significantly up from his career average of 40.4 %. Logically, this would lead to a decrease from his career .309 BABIP, but he saw the opposite, demonstrating bad luck. His 3.36 K/BB ratio was also impressive. His BABIP is likely to regress, and should he keep that GB % high, his 2012 ERA will probably fall below 4, in line with his FIP and xFIP predictions.

Derek Lowe (5.05/3.70/3.65)

Lowe joins Burnett in regretful big contracts from the 2008 offseason. However, he’s also a victim of poor luck, in a very different way. We all know Lowe is an extreme ground ball pitcher, he pitches to contact, shown by a mediocre, at best, career 5.94 K/9. This amplifies the effects of luck for him, because so many balls are put in play against him, and the more balls put in play, the more effect that BABIP has. Although his GB % has fallen from his insane numbers of the early 2000s, it was 59 % last year, which is still exceptional, but his BABIP was .327, highest in the past 10 years. Look for less ground balls finding holes next year, leading to a lower ERA.

Ryan Dempster (4.80/3.91/3.70)

Dempster had a very good 8.50 K/9 and a fair 3.65 BB/9, but suffered from a .324 BABIP, his highest since his rookie season in 1998 when he only pitched 54.2 innings. His batted ball profile in 2011 does not differ significantly from his career averages, so this elevated BABIP seems to be a sign of more hits falling in. Don’t expect his ERA to get back under 3.00 like it was in 2008 (he got lucky that season), but a return to under 4.00 near his 2009-2010 numbers is a reasonable prediction.

Chris Capuano (4.55/4.04/3.67)

Capuano was a very pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011, after not pitching in 2008 or 2009 and throwing only 66 innings in 2010. While you might assume he got lucky in 2011, the opposite was actually the case. He posted a career high 21 % strikeout rate and the second best walk rate of his career at 6.6 %. To put this in perspective, Jered Weaver had a 21.4 % strikeout rate with a 6.1 % walk rate, and both Capuano’s K % and BB % were better than Matt Cain’s. Capuano had a .311 BABIP, which was just the second time his BABIP eclipsed .300. His HR/FB rate was also at it’s second highest number, although not by a very large margin. If Capuano can repeat his K % and BB % of 2011, he’ll be very productive in 2012.

On-Base percentage, or OBP, is a statistic used to measure how often a player reaches base safely divided by his number of plate appearances. It is an important statistic for determining how well rounded a batter is at the plate. It is commonly referred to as the second statistic in a “triple slash line” (BA/OBP/SLG). The exact formula for OBP is

H + BB + HBP / AB + BB + HBP + SF

The league average OBP for each position last season:

Slugging Percentage, which is referred to as SLG, is a statistic used to measure the power of a hitter. It is calculated by simply dividing the total bases by number of at-bats (TB / AB). Slugging percentage is used to determine the amount of power each batter shows at the plate. Slugging percentage is often seen as the third item in a “triple slash line” (BA/OBP/SLG). League average for slugging percentage, based on position, is shown below:

This formula is a quick and easy way to combine both OBP and SLG into a number that shows how well rounded a batter is at the plate (OBP+SLG). It is usually best to compare this number to league averages at each position for the best results. The league average for OPS last year is shown below:

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at which players were most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 2 of this 4 Part series, he examines which hitters should see significant declines in 2012 due to exceptional luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC).

Part 1 - Unlucky Hitters

Emilio Bonifacio (.296/.360/.393/85)

As we saw in the first part of this series, the main stat for luck is BABIP, and Bonifacio had the 3rd highest BABIP in all of baseball last year at .372. While he does have a very nice .339 career BABIP, .372 is simply unsustainable. This is especially true given the fact that he’s had a ground ball rate above 50% every season. Look for his BABIP to regress to around his career number, with his batting average and OBP following towards his career marks of .269 and .328 respectively.

Austin Jackson (.249/.317/.374/71)

Jackson, in my opinion, has been one of the most overrated hitters of late. He posted a solid rookie campaign in 2010 batting .293, but his OBP was still only .345 and his BABIP was an astronomical .396. Last year, his BABIP, while still high, fell to .340, and his slash line suffered as seen above. This year, his BABIP should fall even farther, and we should see the results once again with another decline for the former top Yankees prospect.

Casey Kotchman (.306/.378/.422/79)

There’s definitely a reason Kotchman was still available so late into the offseason. His BABIP last year was .335, with a previous career high BABIP of .305, showing that the high 2011 BABIP was a fluke and not repeatable. Looking at his batted ball profile, his GB % was 2.1 % higher than his average at a massive 55.8 %, the second highest in his career. He is also a slower player, so it’s not as if he has the ability to churn out infield singles with speed. Rather, it was ground balls that were finding holes. So, Kotchman had a very high BABIP with a very high GB rate, a sure sign of extreme luck. Those hits won’t keep falling in, and he’ll be back to a mediocre hitter at best.

Melky Cabrera (.305/.339/.470/98)

The Royals should be very pleased that they were able to unload the Melk Man while his value was at an all time high, because it has peaked. Cabrera’s career BABIP is .299, and it had only reached the .300 plateau once before, when it got up to .332 in 2011. The spike wasn’t due to a change in his batted ball profile, which means it was likely luck; more balls fell in for hits than usual. Let’s also examine Melky’s walk and strikeout rates:

Melky has always been known as an aggressive hitter, but this 5.0 % walk rate is awful. The fact that he put up a career worst BB % and K % even further supports the luck contribution to his 98 wRC in 2011. Like Kotchman, Cabrera should return to form as a mediocre hitter at best, and produce closer to 50-60 wRC.

Matt Joyce (.277/.347/.478/76)

Joyce made the All-Star team last July but trailed off significantly in the second half. He had the benefit of a .317 BABIP compared to a .273 BABIP in 2010, his rookie season. From 2010 to 2011, his BB % drastically declined and his GB % increased. These are signs of what should have been a decline in Joyce’s numbers, but a BABIP of .404 in April and .426 in May inflated his entire stat line for 2011. It’s safe to say this won’t happen again, and Joyce will be back to the .241/.360/.477 player he was in 2010. Not bad, but certainly not All-Star worthy.

Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA, is a statistic that is meant to account for the differences in each type of hit made by the batter. What makes wOBA so effective is that it uses linear weights as the coefficients for each of the outcomes that it measures. For example, the coefficient for a double is 1.24. wOBA is a rate statistic that measures: non-intentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, reached on error, doubles, triples, and homeruns. wOBA is placed on the same scale as On-Base Percentage. The formula for wOBA is seen below:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

The League average wOBA based on each position for last year:

*This statistic was created by Tom Tango.

Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images

In this series, Tyler Wasserman takes a look at the players most affected by luck in 2011. In Part 1 of this 4 Part series, he’ll examine which hitters should see significant improvement in 2012 due to poor luck in 2011. Each player’s stats shown are 2011 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC).

Mark Teixeira (.248/.341/.494/101)

In 2011, Teixeira fell victim to a measly .239 BABIP compared to a .296 career BABIP. His batted ball percentages were in line with his career averages, with a slightly higher FB % and lower GB % than usual for him. This is a good sign, as it means the higher number of ground balls is not the cause of the horrid BABIP, which was the 3rd worst in all of baseball. His 11.1 BB % is virtually the same as his career 11.5 BB %, and his K % was actually better than his career numbers. His power is still there, shown by 39 HRs, .494 SLG %, and .246 ISO. The only thing that wasn’t there last year was the hits falling in. Look for Teixeira to get back to his previous numbers of 120+ wRC with an uptick in his entire slash line.

Evan Longoria (.244/.355/.495/87)

Longoria tied with Teixeira for the 3rd worst BABIP at .239 despite putting up a BABIP over .300 in each of his previous seasons. His batted ball percentages were almost exactly the same as his career averages. Let’s take a look at his BB and K numbers:

What jumps out from these numbers is that Longoria’s BB % and K % have both improved significantly in every season since he’s been in the majors. Based on his peripherals, 2011 should’ve been a career year for the 26-year-old, but he put up the worst numbers of his career in AVG, OBP, and SLG. This is very rare, and demonstrates the awful luck Longoria had last year. With his BABIP likely to move closer to his career average and get back to .300, Longoria should have a monster 2012 season! He’s liable to put up well over 100 wRC, and possibly put himself in MVP contention.

Martin Prado (.260/.302/.385/57)

Prado is a less extreme case than the two above, having a .266 BABIP in 2011 compared to his career .315 BABIP. However, in Prado’s case, there is some explanation for it; His LD % fell to 14.6 %, by far a career low, showing that he was not hitting very many balls hard. But, his FB % was in line with his career average, so it’s not all bad news. More good news comes from a career best 8.8 K %, which is exceptional, although his BB % was down. The low strikeouts and same FB % show that his BABIP should return to at least close to his career numbers, which will help his production. However, he did see a large decline in his power numbers, shown by his .125 ISO. That seems less likely to return than the rest of his numbers, because as the LD % shows, he wasn’t hitting as many balls hard, and his GB % was a very high 50.8 %.

Ian Kinsler (.255/.355/.477/112)

Kinsler had arguably his best season last year (wRC would say so) but was still unlucky. Despite a career .282 BABIP, he saw it fall to .243 in 2011. Similar to Longoria, Kinsler’s BB % of 12.3% and K % of 9.8% were both career bests, yet the low BABIP held him back. As long as Kinsler keeps those BB and K numbers similar to where they were last year — and I see no reason why he won’t do that — look for him to break out (even more than he already has) as one of the elite 2B in the game, right alongside Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia.

John Buck (.227/.316/.367/53)

Buck saw career best numbers by a landslide, with 10.2 % BB and 21.7 % K. Compared to his career numbers, he also converted 1.1% of his batted balls from ground balls to line drives, while hitting the same number of fly balls. From this information, Buck should’ve had a career year if it wasn’t for that .268 BABIP. If he were at his .286 average, his numbers would have looked much better. If Buck can sustain the BB and K numbers, his career averages everywhere else should help him have his best season yet.

Aubrey Huff (.246/.306/.370/55)

Yes, he is aging, having just turned 35 in December. His power seems to have declined, and his K % was at its highest last year since 2001, his first full season. However, it’s not as bad as it may seem for Huff. I don’t mean to say that he will return to 100+ wRC, but he should significantly improve over his 55 wRC output of 2011. That high K % was only 2% higher than his career average, and his BB % was only 0.2 % away from his career average. On top of that, as is the common theme here, he had a low BABIP at .271, with his career number at .291. He saw about 2 % less line drives than his career norm, with 1 % more ground balls, and 1 % more fly balls, which is not all that significant. More of these batted balls should drop in for hits in 2012.

Chris Young (.236/.331/.420/81)

Let’s exclude 2006 when comparing Young’s seasons, since he only played 30 games in limited major league action. Young’s BABIP in 2011 was .275 compared to his career BABIP at .280. Looking at these numbers alone, it doesn’t seem like he was very unlucky at all. But when we dig deeper into his batted ball profile, we see that his BABIP in 2011 should have been higher than his career average. In 2011, he had a very low ground ball rate of 31.6 %, with a good FB % and a LD % that was two percentage points higher than his career average. Therefore, if he weren’t unlucky, his BABIP would have been higher than his career average of .280. Let’s look at a chart of his BB % and K % like we did for Longoria:

Career bests in both rates should indicate the possibility of a career year. Along with his batted ball profile, the lack of a career year shows bad luck. If he maintains those numbers, Young could see a season where he finally reaches his potential in 2012.